An American surveillance ship, a new Philippines law and a rash of responses from China. These
were all it took to put the South China Sea back in the lime light as one of the world’s maritime flash points. The recent events have also awoken the claimants from their lull that came with the signing of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South between ASEAN and China in 2002. The DOC as it is known was an interim instrument to manage conflicts between claimants in the South China Sea while the countries work towards “a peaceful and durable solution” to the problem.
While the declaration has contributed to a reduction in the intensity of the conflict, it has not all been smooth sailing between 2002 and now. The period has been punctuated by minor but sometimes deadly skirmishes such as China’s shooting of Vietnamese fishermen in 2005 and 2007.
Despite the DOC’s call for claimants to exercise restraint in the South China Sea, the countries concerned have hardly been dormant in carrying out activities which would strengthen their claims. China, the Philippines and Vietnam for example completed a trilateral seismic survey in 2007. Interestingly, the survey also included areas not claimed but China and Vietnam but within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
There have been speculations as to why the Philippines agreed to the survey with some analysts suggesting that it is akin to a diplomatic “sellout’ on Manila’s part in favour of economic gains. The survey could also be evidence of China’s divide-and-rule policy among the ASEAN claimants and was followed by a series of activities by the other claimants such as the visit of Taiwan’s President to the Dongsha island in February 2008 following the completion of an airstrip on the island in late 2007. Taken in isolation, these incidents may be considered as minor events in a wider scheme of South China Sea security. But taken together, they do constitute a threat to hard-earned stability in the area undermine at least the spirit if not the letter of the DoC.
The latest actions by the US, the Philippines and China could further undermine this already fragile stability. China’s responses though aggressive are understandable but are somewhat perplexing. No country would like having a sophisticated ocean survey vessel 75 miles off its main submarine base but the use of non-military vessels to confront the USNS Impeccable and to send a fisheries enforcement vessel into the Paracels in response the Philippines’ baseline law begs explanation. Was it because the USNS Impeccable a civilian manned vessel? Was it a show of restraint on China’s part? Has china learnt from the EP-3 incident in 2001 when its fighter aircraft “collided” with a US electronic surveillance plane resulting which crash landed on Hainan island resulting in a diplomatic incident? If push comes to shove would the People’s Liberation Army Navy make an appearance instead of the ‘civilian’ vessels?
The presence of the USNS Impeccable and reportedly six other US vessels including another surveillance vessel the USNS Victorious, and the oceanographic survey vessel USNS Bowditch in the South China Sea at the time has prompted speculations that the US was hunting for Chinese submarines in the South China Sea. Indeed US defence officials speaking on conditions of anonymity to the Associated Press have indicated that the Impeccable “was part of a calculated U.S. surveillance operation in the disputed South China Sea”.
What now? If the claimants of the SCS are serious about peace and stability in the region, they would have to find ways and mean to move the DoC forward. The DoC has not effectively moved beyond the 2002 signing ceremony. None of its agenda in marine scientific research, pollution prevention, environmental protection and safety of navigation has progressed. In other words there has been a lot of talking and not enough walking. Unless of course the status quo with its intermittent conflicts are acceptable to all concerned. This should not be the case given the heightened level of tension now and possible outbreak of conflict even at the slightest provocation and the presence of non-claimant countries in the region.
Indeed if some countries are keen on “tempting the dragon” as one prominent analyst suggested they should be careful not to rock the South China Sea boat too hard. Otherwise we would truly be on the slow boat to China as far as lasting peace and stability in the South China Sea are concerned.
While the declaration has contributed to a reduction in the intensity of the conflict, it has not all been smooth sailing between 2002 and now. The period has been punctuated by minor but sometimes deadly skirmishes such as China’s shooting of Vietnamese fishermen in 2005 and 2007.
Despite the DOC’s call for claimants to exercise restraint in the South China Sea, the countries concerned have hardly been dormant in carrying out activities which would strengthen their claims. China, the Philippines and Vietnam for example completed a trilateral seismic survey in 2007. Interestingly, the survey also included areas not claimed but China and Vietnam but within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
There have been speculations as to why the Philippines agreed to the survey with some analysts suggesting that it is akin to a diplomatic “sellout’ on Manila’s part in favour of economic gains. The survey could also be evidence of China’s divide-and-rule policy among the ASEAN claimants and was followed by a series of activities by the other claimants such as the visit of Taiwan’s President to the Dongsha island in February 2008 following the completion of an airstrip on the island in late 2007. Taken in isolation, these incidents may be considered as minor events in a wider scheme of South China Sea security. But taken together, they do constitute a threat to hard-earned stability in the area undermine at least the spirit if not the letter of the DoC.
The latest actions by the US, the Philippines and China could further undermine this already fragile stability. China’s responses though aggressive are understandable but are somewhat perplexing. No country would like having a sophisticated ocean survey vessel 75 miles off its main submarine base but the use of non-military vessels to confront the USNS Impeccable and to send a fisheries enforcement vessel into the Paracels in response the Philippines’ baseline law begs explanation. Was it because the USNS Impeccable a civilian manned vessel? Was it a show of restraint on China’s part? Has china learnt from the EP-3 incident in 2001 when its fighter aircraft “collided” with a US electronic surveillance plane resulting which crash landed on Hainan island resulting in a diplomatic incident? If push comes to shove would the People’s Liberation Army Navy make an appearance instead of the ‘civilian’ vessels?
The presence of the USNS Impeccable and reportedly six other US vessels including another surveillance vessel the USNS Victorious, and the oceanographic survey vessel USNS Bowditch in the South China Sea at the time has prompted speculations that the US was hunting for Chinese submarines in the South China Sea. Indeed US defence officials speaking on conditions of anonymity to the Associated Press have indicated that the Impeccable “was part of a calculated U.S. surveillance operation in the disputed South China Sea”.
What now? If the claimants of the SCS are serious about peace and stability in the region, they would have to find ways and mean to move the DoC forward. The DoC has not effectively moved beyond the 2002 signing ceremony. None of its agenda in marine scientific research, pollution prevention, environmental protection and safety of navigation has progressed. In other words there has been a lot of talking and not enough walking. Unless of course the status quo with its intermittent conflicts are acceptable to all concerned. This should not be the case given the heightened level of tension now and possible outbreak of conflict even at the slightest provocation and the presence of non-claimant countries in the region.
Indeed if some countries are keen on “tempting the dragon” as one prominent analyst suggested they should be careful not to rock the South China Sea boat too hard. Otherwise we would truly be on the slow boat to China as far as lasting peace and stability in the South China Sea are concerned.
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